아이파드를 사듯이 평화를 살 수 있다고 믿는 한국의 젊은층이 변하고 있다
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작성자 조동수 작성일10-12-23 06:48 조회1,789회 댓글0건
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아래의 글은 미해군사관학교 학부모회에서 최근에 온 이메일입니다. 미국인들은 한국의 사정을 잘알고 있는듯 합니다. 한국의 젊은이들은 "미국이 세계적 악행의 뿌리이며, 워싱턴이 한국전을 일으켰다"고 하는 선전을 믿는다는 내용도 있고, “이제는 아이파드를 사듯이 평화를 살 수 있다고 믿었던 젊은이들의 생각이 변하고 있다”는 대목도 있습니다. 아래의 글은 미국인들이 지금 한반도정세를 어떻게 보고 있는지를 엿볼 수 있는 자료인듯 하여 올려봅니다.
한반도 충돌과 전망에 관한 가치있는 통찰
김정일 독재자의 각본
1. 위협을 준 후 실제로 공격을 가한다
2. 협상을 제안한다
3. 원조를 요구한다
(생략)
두번에 걸친 북한의 도발 (천안함 격침과 연평도 포격)은 한국인들을 심히 화나게 만들었다. 이 두 사건은 한국인들의 생각을 빠르게 변화시켰다. 그러한 변화는 이미 2008년부터 햇볕정책을 단축하기 시작하면서 일기시작하였다. 1998년에 좌경화된 “평화”정치인들에 의해 만들어진 햇볕정책은 비핵화의 조건으로 북한에 경제적 인센티브를 주자는 것이었다. 하지만 북한은 깡패(미국인들은 김정일 집단을 Thuggery 혹은 Hoodlum이라고 봄)가 돈을 받을 수 있는 징후로 보았다. 더군다나 한국의 젊은층은 미국이 세계적 악행의 뿌리이며, 워싱턴이 한국전을 일으켰다는 (좌경화 된)선전물을 믿었다.
그러나 (김정일) 독재정권은 2006년에 핵실험을 하면서 오바하기 시작하였다. 핵실험은 햇볕정책을 끝장나게 만들었으며 선거로 정권이 바뀌게 되었다. 지난달에 한국의 통일부장관은 햇볕정책은 실패작이라고 말했다.
쓰라린 증거로서의 금년의 도발로 인하여 북한을 달래는 것(당근을 주는 것)은 끝났고 그와 반대로 하는 것(채찍을 드는 것)을 더욱더 선호하게 되었다. 한국은 북한의 핵시설에 대해 군사적 보복을 논의하고 있다. 2010년의 (북한의) 공격은 북과 싸울 준비가 되어있는 한국의 장년층과 아이파드를 사듯이 평화를 살 수 있다고 믿었던 젊은층간의 격차를 좁혀주었다.
(생략)
15 Dec 2010
Valuable insight into Korean friction and prospects ... link
________________________________________
Dictator Kim Jong-Il's extortion script:
1. Issue threats, supplement with actual attacks
2. Offer to negotiate
3. Demand aid
The Change in East Asia
By Austin Bay (Archive) • Wednesday, December 15, 2010
The political framework that has kept Korea's smoldering 60-year-old war from fatally reigniting is changing and changing rapidly.
Japan is publicly altering its political approach to North Korea and China. This week, Japan indicated it plans to more fully integrate its military forces with those of the U.S. as well as deploy mobile forces capable of reacting to threats to its southern islands. That sends a hard message to China. These mobile forces could also be employed against North Korea.
The most profound change in public attitude, diplomatic stance and military posture, however, is occurring in South Korea. How these changes will affect regional stability is the subject of intense speculation.
North Korea's cycle of wicked behavior has not changed. Last Monday, North Korea threatened to launch a nuclear war. Dictator Kim Jong-Il's regime has a script. It issues threats, which are often augmented by actual attacks. The threats are followed by offers to negotiate and demands for aid.
This extortion racket is based on the premise that the destructive consequences of all-out war in one of the world's most economically productive regions, East Asia, are so great Kim's neighbors won't risk it. South Korea's capital, Seoul, lies within range of North Korean rocket artillery. Even if a North-South war remained conventional (i.e., no nuclear weapons), Seoul would suffer significant damage. Kim bets South Korea, Japan and the U.S. will send the impoverished North food aid and other economic goodies. His regime also gambles that China will prop it up and undermine political and economic sanctions South Korea and its allies may attempt to impose.
The bet has paid off -- for the most part.
South Korea, however, appears to have had it (finally) with Kim's racket. Two deadly attacks perpetrated by North Korea this year -- the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March and the shelling of a South Korean island in November -- have deeply angered the South Korean people. These incidents have accelerated a shift in the South Korean public's attitude.
Change was already in the wind in 2008 as South Korea began to curtail its Sunshine Policy. Crafted by left-leaning "peace" politicians in 1998, the policy offered the North economic incentives to end its nuclear weapons quest by demonstrating the South's constructive intentions. North Korea, however, saw the policy as an indication that thuggery paid. Moreover, it seemed that younger South Koreans believed the propaganda line that America was the root of all global evil and that Washington had caused the Korean War.
The dictatorship, however, overplayed its hand when it tested a nuke in 2006. That detonation killed the Sunshine Policy, though it took a national election to confirm it. Last month, South Korea's Unification Ministry officially declared the Sunshine Policy a failure.
With this year's attacks as bitter evidence, coaxing the North is out and countering it is increasingly favored. South Korea is discussing military reprisals against the North's nuclear facilities. The 2010 attacks may have closed the gap between older South Koreans prepared to confront the North and the younger generation who until recently believed peace could be bought like an iPod.
This week, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak outlined a plan for Korean reunification with Seoul in charge. A government spokesman said Lee's plan reflects long-term trends and is not predicated on a near-term collapse of the Kim regime.
The North sees the plan as political and psychological warfare. It is indeed such warfare, but based on political and economic reality, not lies and bombast, for it emphasizes the South's immense strength and the North's weakness. It also encourages factions in North Korea's government and military that may oppose Kim Jong-Il and his likely successor, his son, Kim Jong-Un. South Korea is saying it is the future, the Kim regime the past, so make your choice.
To make that gambit work, South Korea will have to stick to its guns, literally and figuratively. How the North will respond to a determined South remains unknown, but for the next 12 to 24 months, the situation in East Asia will be particularly precarious.
한반도 충돌과 전망에 관한 가치있는 통찰
김정일 독재자의 각본
1. 위협을 준 후 실제로 공격을 가한다
2. 협상을 제안한다
3. 원조를 요구한다
(생략)
두번에 걸친 북한의 도발 (천안함 격침과 연평도 포격)은 한국인들을 심히 화나게 만들었다. 이 두 사건은 한국인들의 생각을 빠르게 변화시켰다. 그러한 변화는 이미 2008년부터 햇볕정책을 단축하기 시작하면서 일기시작하였다. 1998년에 좌경화된 “평화”정치인들에 의해 만들어진 햇볕정책은 비핵화의 조건으로 북한에 경제적 인센티브를 주자는 것이었다. 하지만 북한은 깡패(미국인들은 김정일 집단을 Thuggery 혹은 Hoodlum이라고 봄)가 돈을 받을 수 있는 징후로 보았다. 더군다나 한국의 젊은층은 미국이 세계적 악행의 뿌리이며, 워싱턴이 한국전을 일으켰다는 (좌경화 된)선전물을 믿었다.
그러나 (김정일) 독재정권은 2006년에 핵실험을 하면서 오바하기 시작하였다. 핵실험은 햇볕정책을 끝장나게 만들었으며 선거로 정권이 바뀌게 되었다. 지난달에 한국의 통일부장관은 햇볕정책은 실패작이라고 말했다.
쓰라린 증거로서의 금년의 도발로 인하여 북한을 달래는 것(당근을 주는 것)은 끝났고 그와 반대로 하는 것(채찍을 드는 것)을 더욱더 선호하게 되었다. 한국은 북한의 핵시설에 대해 군사적 보복을 논의하고 있다. 2010년의 (북한의) 공격은 북과 싸울 준비가 되어있는 한국의 장년층과 아이파드를 사듯이 평화를 살 수 있다고 믿었던 젊은층간의 격차를 좁혀주었다.
(생략)
15 Dec 2010
Valuable insight into Korean friction and prospects ... link
________________________________________
Dictator Kim Jong-Il's extortion script:
1. Issue threats, supplement with actual attacks
2. Offer to negotiate
3. Demand aid
The Change in East Asia
By Austin Bay (Archive) • Wednesday, December 15, 2010
The political framework that has kept Korea's smoldering 60-year-old war from fatally reigniting is changing and changing rapidly.
Japan is publicly altering its political approach to North Korea and China. This week, Japan indicated it plans to more fully integrate its military forces with those of the U.S. as well as deploy mobile forces capable of reacting to threats to its southern islands. That sends a hard message to China. These mobile forces could also be employed against North Korea.
The most profound change in public attitude, diplomatic stance and military posture, however, is occurring in South Korea. How these changes will affect regional stability is the subject of intense speculation.
North Korea's cycle of wicked behavior has not changed. Last Monday, North Korea threatened to launch a nuclear war. Dictator Kim Jong-Il's regime has a script. It issues threats, which are often augmented by actual attacks. The threats are followed by offers to negotiate and demands for aid.
This extortion racket is based on the premise that the destructive consequences of all-out war in one of the world's most economically productive regions, East Asia, are so great Kim's neighbors won't risk it. South Korea's capital, Seoul, lies within range of North Korean rocket artillery. Even if a North-South war remained conventional (i.e., no nuclear weapons), Seoul would suffer significant damage. Kim bets South Korea, Japan and the U.S. will send the impoverished North food aid and other economic goodies. His regime also gambles that China will prop it up and undermine political and economic sanctions South Korea and its allies may attempt to impose.
The bet has paid off -- for the most part.
South Korea, however, appears to have had it (finally) with Kim's racket. Two deadly attacks perpetrated by North Korea this year -- the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March and the shelling of a South Korean island in November -- have deeply angered the South Korean people. These incidents have accelerated a shift in the South Korean public's attitude.
Change was already in the wind in 2008 as South Korea began to curtail its Sunshine Policy. Crafted by left-leaning "peace" politicians in 1998, the policy offered the North economic incentives to end its nuclear weapons quest by demonstrating the South's constructive intentions. North Korea, however, saw the policy as an indication that thuggery paid. Moreover, it seemed that younger South Koreans believed the propaganda line that America was the root of all global evil and that Washington had caused the Korean War.
The dictatorship, however, overplayed its hand when it tested a nuke in 2006. That detonation killed the Sunshine Policy, though it took a national election to confirm it. Last month, South Korea's Unification Ministry officially declared the Sunshine Policy a failure.
With this year's attacks as bitter evidence, coaxing the North is out and countering it is increasingly favored. South Korea is discussing military reprisals against the North's nuclear facilities. The 2010 attacks may have closed the gap between older South Koreans prepared to confront the North and the younger generation who until recently believed peace could be bought like an iPod.
This week, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak outlined a plan for Korean reunification with Seoul in charge. A government spokesman said Lee's plan reflects long-term trends and is not predicated on a near-term collapse of the Kim regime.
The North sees the plan as political and psychological warfare. It is indeed such warfare, but based on political and economic reality, not lies and bombast, for it emphasizes the South's immense strength and the North's weakness. It also encourages factions in North Korea's government and military that may oppose Kim Jong-Il and his likely successor, his son, Kim Jong-Un. South Korea is saying it is the future, the Kim regime the past, so make your choice.
To make that gambit work, South Korea will have to stick to its guns, literally and figuratively. How the North will respond to a determined South remains unknown, but for the next 12 to 24 months, the situation in East Asia will be particularly precarious.
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